The Rise and Fall of Undergraduate Enrollment: 30 Years of Change
Over the past three decades, undergraduate enrollment in the United States has experienced significant shifts. What began as a steady climb through the 1990s and 2000s crested around 2010, only to reverse course in the years that followed. The trends vary by gender and institutional type, but the overall picture is clear: fewer students are enrolling in college today than a decade ago — and the gap between male and female students has widened.
Growth and Peak (1990–2010)
From 1990 to 2010, undergraduate enrollment increased dramatically. Driven by population growth, rising college attendance rates, and increased access to federal financial aid, the number of undergraduates rose from approximately 13 million in 1990 to a peak of 18.1 million in 2010. Women consistently made up the majority of students throughout this period, but both genders contributed to the rise.
This growth coincided with several long-term trends: the expansion of higher education as a pathway to economic opportunity, the spread of community colleges and online programs, and strong public messaging around the importance of a college degree.
Decline and Divergence (2010–Present)
Since 2010, the trend has reversed. Undergraduate enrollment has declined by roughly 16%, falling to 15.2 million students by 2022. This drop has not been evenly distributed. Community colleges and for-profit institutions have seen the steepest declines, while enrollment at more selective four-year institutions has remained relatively stable or even increased.
Gender trends are particularly notable. Male undergraduate enrollment peaked around 2010 at 7.9 million but fell to 6.5 million by 2022 — a nearly 18% decline. Female enrollment also declined, from a high of 10.2 million to 8.7 million, but at a slower pace. As a result, the gender gap in higher education has widened. By 2020, women made up nearly 58% of undergraduate students, and male participation rates are now a growing concern among policymakers and educators.
Causes of the Decline
Multiple factors have contributed to the downturn:
Demographic shifts: Fewer high school graduates are available to enter college, particularly in the Midwest and Northeast.
Labor market dynamics: A strong economy and rising wages in trades have pulled some students away from college.
Cost concerns: The rising price of tuition and student debt burdens have made many students and families question the value of a degree.
Pandemic disruption: COVID-19 accelerated the decline, particularly in community colleges and among first-generation students.
Where Are We Now?
There are signs of stabilization. Some recent data suggest that enrollment may have bottomed out and could begin a slow recovery, especially as the economy cools. Still, the long-term trends — especially the declining enrollment of men — raise important questions about the future of higher education in the U.S.
As colleges adapt, addressing cost, relevance, and accessibility will be crucial. So too will be re-engaging populations who have drifted away from traditional pathways — especially young men, low-income students, and those in rural areas.